The South Sulawesi provincial government, in coordination with the Downstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Agency (BPH Migas) and PT Pertamina Patra Niaga, has officially implemented a restrictive policy on subsidized fuel purchases across the region. Effective from September 13 to September 20, 2026, the policy introduces a license plate-based odd-even rotation system at all fuel stations (SPBU) in Makassar and surrounding regencies to mitigate the persistent, long queues that have disrupted traffic and public activity over the past week.
The surge in demand for subsidized fuel, particularly Pertalite and Solar, has reached critical levels, prompting urgent intervention from regulators. This decision marks a significant shift in energy distribution management as local authorities attempt to balance supply chain stability with rising consumer demand triggered by broader economic shifts.
The Catalyst: Rising Costs and Consumer Migration
The primary driver behind the current energy crisis in South Sulawesi is the recent price hike in non-subsidized fuel products, such as Pertamax Dexlite, Pertamina Dex, and Pertamax Turbo. As the price gap between premium non-subsidized fuel and government-subsidized alternatives widened, a phenomenon known as "consumer migration" occurred. Motorists who previously relied on high-octane non-subsidized fuel began switching to Pertalite and Solar to manage their transportation costs.
Head of BPH Migas, Wahyudi Anas, confirmed during an inspection at SPBU 74.902.32 on Jalan Perintis Kemerdekaan, Makassar, that the shift has been substantial. Initially, the demand spike was recorded at a manageable 2 percent above normal levels. However, that figure has ballooned to an 11 percent increase on a national scale, with South Sulawesi experiencing acute pressure due to high local consumption rates.
"The correlation is clear," Anas stated. "When the price of non-subsidized fuel rose, we saw an immediate and progressive increase in the demand for subsidized variants. The infrastructure at our fuel stations is currently being pushed to its limits by this sudden influx of motorists who are moving away from unsubsidized products to preserve their personal budget."
Chronology of the Crisis and Regulatory Response
The disruption began in early September 2026, as fuel stations across Makassar reported vehicles queuing as early as dawn, with lines frequently spilling onto major thoroughfares, causing significant traffic congestion. By the second week of September, the situation reached a breaking point, forcing local authorities to act.
September 10-12, 2026: Reports from various districts in South Sulawesi indicated widespread fuel scarcity. While supply levels remained technically within the quota, the rate of consumption significantly outpaced the speed of refueling at stations, leading to empty tanks at the retail level.
September 13, 2026: The provincial government, in collaboration with BPH Migas, announced the formal implementation of the odd-even license plate policy. This mandate requires vehicles with odd-numbered plates to refuel on odd-numbered dates, while even-numbered plates are restricted to even-numbered dates.
In addition to the rotational schedule, the government has imposed strict transaction limits to ensure equitable distribution:
- Two-wheeled vehicles: A maximum purchase limit of IDR 50,000 per transaction.
- Four-wheeled vehicles: A maximum purchase limit of IDR 300,000 per transaction.
Operational Challenges and Socio-Economic Implications
The implementation of these measures has faced immediate scrutiny, particularly from commercial drivers who rely on fuel for their daily livelihood. During a dialogue session with the public, concerns were raised regarding the viability of these limits for the gig economy. For instance, ride-hailing (ojol) drivers noted that a 5-liter limit is insufficient for their operational needs, as they often cover significant distances daily.
BPH Migas has acknowledged these complexities. The agency is currently balancing the need to prevent "fuel leakage"—where subsidized products are diverted to unauthorized commercial or industrial sectors—against the necessity of keeping the local economy moving.
"We are monitoring the field closely," said an official from the regional Pertamina office. "The regulation is intended to prevent hoarding and ensure that subsidized fuel reaches those who truly need it for their daily transportation, rather than being exploited by entities that should be using industrial-grade fuel."
Analysis of Supply Chain and Stock Availability
Despite public anxiety regarding "quota cuts," BPH Migas has firmly denied that the government has intentionally reduced the fuel quota for South Sulawesi. Instead, the agency emphasized that supply lines are fully functional and that fuel availability is guaranteed for at least the next 14 days. To address the current shortfall, the agency has authorized an "intervention stock" to be injected into the supply chain, aimed at normalizing inventory levels at all retail points.
From an economic perspective, the current volatility highlights the vulnerability of the domestic fuel subsidy model. When global crude prices fluctuate or domestic retail policies shift, the retail market experiences a "shock" that ripples through the logistics and transport sectors. The use of an odd-even system, while effective in the short term, serves as a stop-gap measure rather than a structural solution to the underlying dependency on subsidized fossil fuels.
Broader Implications for Energy Policy
The current situation in South Sulawesi serves as a case study for the challenges of managing energy subsidies in a post-inflationary environment. The policy of limiting purchases based on license plates is a departure from traditional supply-side management and signals a more proactive, demand-side regulatory approach.
Key implications of this policy include:
- Traffic Management: By limiting the frequency of visits to SPBU, the government aims to reduce the physical footprint of queues on city streets, which has been a major contributor to urban gridlock in Makassar.
- Behavioral Change: The policy encourages consumers to plan their fuel consumption more efficiently. By capping the monetary value of purchases, the government is effectively "rationing" the subsidy, forcing a change in consumption patterns.
- Revenue Protection: By preventing the misuse of subsidized fuel by high-end vehicles or illegal industrial activities, the state protects the national budget from excessive subsidy payouts.
Future Outlook and Stakeholder Cooperation
Moving forward, the success of the September 13-20 initiative will depend on the cooperation between the public, fuel station operators, and law enforcement. The BPH Migas has expressed appreciation for the proactive stance taken by the South Sulawesi provincial government.
"We believe that through this combined regulatory effort and strict field oversight, the situation will stabilize within the coming days," Anas added. "The goal is not to inconvenience the public, but to ensure that the limited supply of subsidized energy is distributed in a fair and orderly manner."
As the region moves toward the end of the one-week trial, policymakers will likely evaluate the data to determine if these restrictions should be extended or if additional structural reforms—such as a more robust digital verification system for subsidized fuel—are required. For now, motorists in Makassar are encouraged to adhere strictly to the odd-even guidelines to avoid further strain on the fuel distribution network.
The incident underscores the urgent need for a more comprehensive long-term strategy for energy transition in Indonesia. While the current focus remains on the immediate management of supply queues, the recurring nature of these crises points toward a larger need for infrastructure investment in storage and a more targeted subsidy mechanism that effectively reaches the lower-income demographics without causing systemic market volatility.
In conclusion, while the queues in Makassar are expected to subside under the new regulatory framework, the event highlights the fragility of the fuel distribution ecosystem. The collaboration between the provincial administration, Pertamina, and BPH Migas remains the critical anchor for maintaining stability as the province navigates these challenging energy market conditions.
