A recent analysis by InfluenceMap, an independent research organization, has levied significant accusations against major Japanese automotive manufacturers—Toyota, Honda, and Suzuki—along with the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). The report claims these entities have actively lobbied and influenced automotive policy between 2023 and 2026 in a manner that obstructs Indonesia’s transition to electric vehicles (EVs). This advocacy, according to the analysis, risks prolonging the nation’s dependence on imported oil and derailing its energy security goals.
The findings, presented by Muhammad Risky, an analyst at InfluenceMap, highlight a potential "misstep" that could impede a full transition to EVs and perpetuate Indonesia’s reliance on foreign oil imports. Risky emphasized the inseparable link between Indonesia’s vulnerability to fuel imports and the critical need for decarbonization in the transportation sector, which is also a cornerstone of national energy resilience.
"Indonesia’s dependence on fuel imports makes the decarbonization of the transportation sector and energy security two inseparable issues," Risky stated during an online briefing on Friday, July 24. "The government has recognized this and made energy independence one of its national objectives. However, many proposals from the industry are actually pointing in the opposite direction, which is to extend Indonesia’s dependence on foreign fossil fuels."
InfluenceMap’s analysis points to the significant market dominance of these Japanese manufacturers. In 2025, Toyota, Honda, and Suzuki collectively held approximately 74% of the Indonesian vehicle market share. Furthermore, their leadership positions within Gaikindo grant them substantial influence over the strategic direction of transportation decarbonization efforts in the country.
This corporate advocacy stands in contrast to the stated ambitions of Indonesia’s leadership. President Prabowo Subianto has repeatedly underscored the importance of reducing reliance on imported fuels and bolstering national energy resilience through electrification. The analysis suggests that during the crucial period of formulating the National Electric Vehicle Roadmap and new EV incentive policies for 2026, industry advocacy has focused on prolonging the viability of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
Industry Advocacy vs. National Ambitions
The core of InfluenceMap’s critique lies in the automotive industry’s lobbying efforts, which, according to the report, aim to maintain a long-term role for ICE-based hybrid vehicles. This stance is seen as directly contradicting the government’s push to reduce oil import dependency.
A key turning point cited in the analysis is the government’s decision in December 2024 to broaden incentive programs. Originally intended exclusively for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), these incentives were expanded to include ICE-based hybrid vehicles. The report suggests that the industry has continued to press for further ICE-related incentives in the lead-up to the announcement of a new incentive package scheduled for later this year.
"Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, and Gaikindo are advocating for sustained policy support for hybrid vehicles, which has the potential to delay the BEV transition in Indonesia," Risky asserted.
Debunking Industry Narratives
InfluenceMap identifies three primary narratives advanced by Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, and Gaikindo to justify their advocacy for continued ICE-based vehicle support:
- Incentives for ICE-based vehicles drive market growth.
- Hybrid vehicles are more suitable for Indonesian road conditions.
- Transportation decarbonization policies should remain "technology neutral."
The InfluenceMap analysis directly refutes these claims based on available public data. The report highlights the robust growth of EV sales in Indonesia over the past five years, indicating a burgeoning market demand. Furthermore, independent research cited by InfluenceMap suggests that BEVs offer significantly greater emission reductions compared to hybrid vehicles, even with Indonesia’s current electricity generation mix.
"Based on the publicly available evidence, this analysis refutes all three narratives," Risky stated. "EV sales in Indonesia have grown rapidly in the last five years, while research indicates that BEVs are capable of generating far greater emission reductions than hybrid vehicles, even with Indonesia’s current electricity mix."
A Pattern of Global Influence
These findings from Indonesia align with broader research conducted by InfluenceMap. Previous studies have indicated a coordinated strategy among automotive industries, particularly by Toyota and the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), to slow down the transition to electric vehicles in various developing markets. This coordinated approach, the organization suggests, aims to protect existing ICE vehicle markets and delay the widespread adoption of zero-emission technologies.
The implications of this alleged obstruction are significant for Indonesia. A prolonged reliance on imported fossil fuels not only impacts the national trade balance but also undermines energy security and national resilience. Decarbonizing the transportation sector is crucial for meeting climate change commitments and improving air quality in urban centers.
Context: Indonesia’s Energy Landscape and EV Push
Indonesia, as a major oil producer, has historically relied heavily on fossil fuels for its energy needs. However, the country is also a significant importer of oil products, creating a complex economic and geopolitical situation. Recognizing the need to diversify its energy sources and reduce import dependency, the Indonesian government has set ambitious targets for EV adoption.
The electrification of transportation is viewed as a dual-pronged strategy: reducing fuel import bills and contributing to environmental sustainability. The government has been actively developing policies and incentives to encourage both the production and consumption of EVs. This includes initiatives like tax breaks, subsidies, and the establishment of charging infrastructure.
The timeline of policy discussions around EVs has been critical. The period between 2023 and 2026 has been pivotal, with the development of the National Electric Vehicle Roadmap and the revision of incentive structures. This is precisely the period during which InfluenceMap alleges that industry lobbying has been most active in shaping these policies to favor ICE and hybrid technologies.
The Role of Gaikindo
Gaikindo, as the official representative body for the automotive industry in Indonesia, plays a crucial role in shaping regulatory frameworks and industry standards. Its membership comprises virtually all major automotive manufacturers operating in the country, including the Japanese giants mentioned in the report. This broad representation grants Gaikindo considerable leverage in policy discussions.
The organization’s stated mission often revolves around promoting the growth and development of the automotive sector within Indonesia. However, InfluenceMap’s analysis suggests that this pursuit of growth, as interpreted by the industry, may be at odds with the nation’s broader strategic objectives of energy independence and environmental sustainability.
Potential Ramifications and Future Outlook
The allegations against Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, and Gaikindo raise serious questions about the alignment of industry interests with national policy goals. If the analysis holds true, it could lead to:
- Delayed EV Adoption: Continued support for ICE and hybrid vehicles may disincentivize consumers and manufacturers from fully committing to BEV technology, slowing down the market transition.
- Continued Oil Import Dependency: A slower shift to EVs means a continued reliance on imported oil, exacerbating Indonesia’s trade deficit and vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations.
- Missed Opportunities for Innovation: A prolonged focus on existing ICE technology could stifle investment in domestic EV manufacturing, battery production, and related technological advancements.
- Undermining Climate Commitments: Failure to accelerate EV adoption will make it more challenging for Indonesia to meet its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.
The analysis also implies a potential conflict between the short-term economic interests of established automotive players and the long-term strategic interests of the nation. While hybrid vehicles offer a transitional step, critics argue that an overemphasis on them can create a "lock-in" effect, making a complete transition to zero-emission vehicles more difficult and costly in the future.
Seeking Response
CNN Indonesia has reached out to Gaikindo for a response regarding the allegations of hindering the electric vehicle transition in Indonesia. As of the time of reporting, Gaikindo had not yet provided a statement. The silence from the industry association, especially in the face of such pointed accusations, further fuels the debate surrounding the future of automotive policy in Indonesia. The coming months, with the scheduled announcement of new incentive packages, will be critical in determining the direction of Indonesia’s electric vehicle journey and its success in achieving energy independence and a sustainable transportation future.
